‘Snow White’ Having Bad Spell With Mid $40M Opening

3RD UPDATE, SATURDAY AM: Refresh for chart…and more analysis…Here’s the good news when it comes to Disney‘s Snow White: At an estimated $45.5M, the live action take of the 1937 toon is opening higher than other controversial laden movies such as Warner Bros’ Catwoman ($16.7M) and Joker: Folie a Deux ($37.6M) and even Relativity’s very expensive-at-the-time 2012 version of Snow White, Mirror Mirror ($18.1M).

However at that level, as we told you yesterday, it’s right on par with Dumbo’s lackluster start ($46M), and far behind other Disney feature takes of vaults animated movies, i.e. The Little Mermaid ($95.5M), Maleficent ($69.4M), and Cinderella ($67.8M).

Oh, and Snow White received a B+ CinemaScore, which is extremely low grade for this type of Disney genre, for even the middling ones, i.e. Dumbo (A-), Mufasa (A-), Pete’s Dragon (A), and the Maleficent franchise (both As) have top grades with audiences. A fairest grade resides in the Rotten Tomatoes score of 71% for Snow White which is better than Dumbo (47%), and not far from Maleficent (70%) and Cinderella (78%).

Amid star Rachel Zegler’s candid comments during production of Snow White, and the whole dwarf debacle, was there anyway Disney could have curtailed all the bad press on the $270M production? Some in motion picture marketing realms firmly believe no, but there’s an argument to be made that the studio could have alleviated this. Even though critical reviews stand at 44% Rotten, there was a positive word of mouth that began to eke out of last weekend’s premiere about this musical with songs by Greatest Showman Pasek and Paul. Way too late! Disney could have rallied the support of millennial and Gen Z social media influencers, screened the movie to them early on, and blasted the loudspeakers instead of enduring a barrage of tabloid piece after tabloid piece. They let the bad word of mouth get into the ether.

But there’s another thing when it comes to Snow White, and it has nothing to do with controversy, rather her age, that being in Disney years, 88 years old. How does Little Mermaid, which also endured a ton of male online vitriol over the casting of its lead, in that case, Halle Bailey, open to $95.5M over 3-days and do a 3x multiple a near $300M domestic? How does Little Mermaid get away with it and Snow White can’t?

As we pointed out with Dumbo, these live-action takes of older, vintage Disney musicals and animated movies –i.e. Maleficent, Cinderella, 101 Dalmatians, they just open lower. They have darker, colder, classical themes, which don’t play to today’s massive female audience.

Said social media analytics corp RelishMix about one string being pulled in the negative buzz for Snow White: “Some feel the story is so antiquated and boring for modern audiences, sharing, ‘This remake looks so dull and unengaging, which only adds to the creepiness of the CGI’ and ‘Kudos Disney. You wrecked more of your classic history.’”

Not to mention, the current millennial, Gen Y and Gen Z didn’t grow up with the older toons like they did with late 80s/early 90s Disney animated musical renaissance under Jeffrey Katzenberg. Little Mermaid, Aladdin, Lion King mean something significantly more to those in their 20s and 30s than say the original Snow White, which they may have never even in a movie theater.

In the segue from Sean Bailey to David Greenbaum at Disney studios, the mandate isn’t to completely abandon the live-action takes of Disney toons (Moana is coming out on July 10, 2026), but there has to be an edge, or a way in. A perfect example: Cruella. Rather than just simply re-tell 101 Dalmatians again, the way into these IP is more character driven, more avant garde: How does a fashion designer turn ugly and steal puppies? However, the studio isn’t going to make Bambi, just to make Bambi. Is it no surprise that Snow White is opening under Universal’s 2012 Snow White and the Huntsmen ($56.2M)? That movie was punk rock next to Disney’s version with Kristen Stewart still in her Twilight zeitgeist and an ax-wielding beefcake in Chris Hemsworth, and sexy Charlize Theron.

At this point in time, no one is expecting Snow White to hit $50M. if it does, great. The one happy ending it has per many is that “it’s the only thing out there” as far as tentpoles for girls. Kids under 12 gave it a 51% definite recommend which is good, and means it has some nag factor to push their parents to go. Like Mufasa which also opened to below expectations, Snow White could leg out. However, general audiences with a 43% definite recommend want no business with evil queens, a damsel in distress with puffy satin shoulders, and seven miners.

More under the hood with Snow White: Very female skewing at 68%, 14% of the audience was between 13-17 years old, 24% of the audience was 18-24 years old, 23% of the audience between 25-34 years old and 38% of the audience 35+ years old. Diversity demos are 45% Caucasian, 25% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black, 11% Asian & 7% NatAm/Other. PLFs and Imax are only delivering 32% of the weekend (which is expected with a female leaning family movie). Even business throughout the country I’m told with AMC Disney Springs FL the pic’s highest grossing multiplex so far with $88k.

RelishMix spotted followers across TikTok, YouTube, Instagram, Facebook and X that numbered 534M before opening, which was “52% above family-live-action genre averages. Materials are strongest on YouTube with 186M views with a strong viral rate at 31:1.” As we told you earlier, awareness of the film for moviegoers wasn’t the problem. Getting them to see it was another story. As such RelishMix says, “Negative chatter on Snow White runs thick in two areas: the choice to make the dwarves CGI and Disney’s decision not to cast real actors to play the dwarves is backfiring heavily, with comments like, “Those CGI dwarves were awful! Nightmare fuel!’ and ‘Disney took away jobs from people who could actually play the dwarfs.”  

Warner Bros’ Alto Knights at a $50M cost before P&A will likely lose less money given its cost threshold and rolled back marketing spend than Snow White, but at a $3M in 6th, it’s Warner Bros. second bomb this year after Mickey 17. At $3M, Alto Knights is lower than the Robert De Niro-Sylvester Stallone Warner Bros box movie Grudge Match ($7M, ‘memba that 2013 movie?) and it’s not the 2x Oscar winners lowest wide entry opening ever (1989’s We’re No Angels, another De Niro dud, opened to $2M unadjusted for inflation). Why was this movie made? The urban legend is that Warner Bros Discovery CEO David Zaslav gave it the greenlight because he’s buddies with the pic’s producer Irwin Winkler and scribe Nick Pileggi is a neighbor he can borrow sugar from in the Hamptons. Actually, Warner Bros Motion Picture boss Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy worked with Winkler on Creed III at MGM; and the former worked with Barry Levinson on the 2x Oscar nominated Wag the Dog at New Line. Big chain exhibitors were calling for a diversity of slate, and here was a movie squarely aimed at very older men (58% men, 77% of the audience over 35, 33% over 55). Double De Niro sounded intriguing under Bugsy‘s Levinson. Why’d the Raging Bull thespian do it? I heard because he wanted the challenge of playing two Dons, especially if Alto Knights is his final gangster film (not final film). What’s sad, is that the gangster movie, until someone makes a new one and breaks it completely (Hello, Nic Winding Refn? Where are you?) has been whacked by streaming and The Sopranos. How to redefine the gangster genre nowadays? Why through the lens of Batman with villain Penguin and an acerbic, savage femme doña in Cristin Milioti’s Sofia Falcone. That’s gangsta. Alto Knights gets a B CinemaScore.

Other stuff:

Briarcliff Entertainment’s recue of Jonathan Majors 2023 Sundance darling Magazine Dreams in which he played a brooding boxer (far too close to his own real life) did $340K on Friday, for what’s looking like a $755K opening at 815 sites. I hear ticket sales were OK in NY, LA, Atlanta, Chicago and DC and that’s it. Critics always liked the movie at 81% on RT, but audiences at 91% respected it as well. You’ll remember Searchlight bought the movie after Sundance in what was a potential awards season play but following the Majors’ scandal with his girlfriend, they unloaded the movie.

More…

2ND UPDATE, Friday midday: Currently, Disney’s Snow White is seeing $15.5 million today, which includes last night’s $3.5M, and will get the Rachel Zegler-Gal Gadot movie to the mid-$40Ms for a three-day total at the domestic box office. That’s right around where Dumbo was, jeez: That Tim Burton clunker did $15.2M on its opening day for a near $46M 3-day off a much cheaper production cost than Snow White ($170M versus $270M). Again, it all comes down to Saturday and Sunday matinees with Snow White particularly given its target of women.

Warner Bros may be wishing it were Disney right now: WB’s $50M Robert De Niro double gangster movie The Alto Knights per industry sources will be lucky to slot fifth with at least $1M today (including previews) and $3M for the weekend off a $50M production cost. Another unfortunate misfire for the studio of Harry, Albert, Sam and Jack…but Minecraft is coming.

More updates later on whether Snow White completely passes out.

UPDATED after previous EXCLUSIVE: Disney’s Thursday preview figure for Snow White came in at $3.5 million. Early PostTrak data shows 5 stars with kids under 12, and 84% of those kids who showed up were girls.

The film’s general audience is 3 stars. However, definite recommend is low at 39%. In fact, Warner Bros’ The Alto Knights has a higher definite recommend of 44%. Parents with Snow White are weathering the film at 2½ stars, though their definite recommend is higher at 52%.

Quorum pointed out today that bad buzz is only an indicator if it impacts tracking. Here’s what it noticed: The best comp for Snow White in Quorum’s books is 2023’s The Little Mermaid (which you’ll remember had a similar ire on social with the casting of Halle Bailey in the title role).

“Snow White was never tracking to open at the same level, though six weeks ago – at 42 days out – the data suggested that the film could open north of $60M. In the sea of tracking data, the one metric that is arguably most important is interest among young women. That is the demo that drove Mermaid and is expected to do the same for Snow White. At 42 days from release, interest among women under 35 was at 58%, eight points lower than Mermaid at 66%,” it said.

However, there was a delta between the two movies, with interest among women under 35 growing from 66% to 68% for Little Mermaid and Snow White‘s shrinking from 58% to 52%. Fourteen days out, interest in Snow White began to fall.

“It’s not uncommon for interest in a demo to rise and fall,” reports Quorum. “The impact of falling interest can be diminished if a film targets multiple demos. The danger arises when a film is reliant on a single demo to succeed. And when it’s that demo that shows erosion, the impact can be pretty severe. What looked like a $60M+ opening just two weeks ago began to look like a $40M+ debut.”

Nonetheless, we’ll see if young girls in droves really come to Snow White‘s rescue. Disney hasn’t allowed the veil to be lifted yet on the Rotten Tomatoes’ audience score.

PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE, 11:45 PM Thursday: Disney’s Snow White, which has been dragged through the tabloids like she was Leona Helmsley, is seeing Thursday previews of $3.5 million, per our sources. Note, these numbers don’t come from Disney. Showtimes began at 2 p.m.

Where does this put the feature take of Disney’s original princess?

At that level, the Marc Webb-directed musical is above the $2.3M previews of 2019’s Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (18% of a $12.5M Friday for a 3-day of $36.9M) and Tim Burton’s Dumbo‘s $2.6M Thursday night (17% of a $15.2M Friday for a 3-day of $46M); both also were Disney feature adaptations of vault toons. It’s also not that far from DreamWorks Animation’s Kung Fu Panda 4, which did $3.8M in Thursday previews last year for a $19.4M Friday and $57.8M 3-day.

The success of this $270M production boils down to whether families with daughters go on Saturday and Sunday. Also, will moviegoers in red states clutch their pearls? It’s spring break and there’s 25% of K-12 schools are off Friday, a percentage that will generally hold for the next few weeks.

Snow White carries a high level of awareness at 94%, meaning audiences know the movie is out there. However, the level of interest on tracking is low at 39%, making many industry suits wonder whether a movie at that level has ever opened to north of $50M+.

Do families ignore all the noise that the pic’s star Rachel Zegler created and decide to go see what is a well-produced Disney live-action take of a classic toon? Get with the picture: Snow White isn’t some zany Stephen Sondheim-esque swing ala Joker: Folie à Deux or is it the crazy WTF 1981 Andy Kaufman-Bernadette Peters robot movie bomb Heartbeeps. This is a well-produced musical from Wicked producer Marc Platt, with songs by Oscar winners Pasek and Paul. Webb is the sublime romantic comedy director of (500) Days of Summer. Heck, Barbie‘s Greta Gerwig at one point polished the screenplay. In total, Snow White wasn’t made by 5-year-olds, or is it waving any political flag agenda. In fact, 2016’s Zootopia had a more overt political message going on, and that was released at a time leading into the first Donald Trump presidency. As one marketing studio czar said to me today, “Why wouldn’t any family want to see Snow White?”

Critical score for Snow White on Rotten Tomatoes is low at 46%. But so was Maleficent (54% Rotten, $69.4M 3-day), Maleficent: Mistress of Evil (40% Rotten) and Aladdin (57% Rotten, $91.5M), and reviews didn’t prevent those movies from doing stateside business. All of those Disney movies received A CinemaScores, so we’ll see where Snow White settles.

Snow White will be booked at 4,200 theaters with all the wish fulfillment of PLFs, 4DX, Screen-X, Dolby and Imax tickets.

Also opening this weekend wide is Warner Bros’ Barry Levinson-directed, Robert De Niro-starring gangster movie The Alto Knights. The movie has 38% Rotten Tomatoes critics score. We’re hearing previews are less than half million. The movie is expected to do low- to mid-single digits aimed at old men. Who doesn’t want to be Snow White tonight?

Also wide this week is RLJE/Shudder’s Flying Lotus directed sci-fi horror movie Ash starring Eiza González and Aaron Paul at 1,136 theaters. The pic is 74% fresh with RT Critics.