Creating a Meat Shield Alliance in the New Era of ’Survivor’ Is a Dangerous Strategy

If there’s one thing that we know about the New Era of Survivor, it is that strategic and social players have excelled in a way that had not been seen prior to Survivor 41. While physical threats have found some success, they haven’t dominated like they had in the old school generation. Now, with the 13 castaways on one beach on Survivor 48, the physical threats, led by Joe Hunter and David Kinne, have decided that they are bringing the strong players, regardless of original tribes, together to eliminate the strategic and social players.

In their mind, if you’re good at a puzzle, you’re out. On paper, it’s a viable option that has not been explored in the game for some time, but it poses a terrible endgame. Perhaps not being strategically minded, they haven’t quite come to the realization that short-term gain equals long-term pain in their scenario. Jeff Probst loves an alpha male player. Can these physical forces find a path to victory?

Physical Strength Has Had Less Success on ‘Survivor’ in the New Era

At the start of the season, the three tribes were quite drastically mismatched. The Vula Tribe continued to lose and lose. It didn’t matter who you were and what you contributed to the greater good of the tribe, scheming was the downfall. As the Vula Tribe suffered, the other two tribes, Lagi and Civa, not only benefited from rewards, but social bonds also flourished. On Lagi, Joe formed the California Girls with Shauhin Davari and the since-fallen Thomas Krottinger, as well as the crucial connection with Eva Erickson. On Civa, it was the other individuals, namely Kyle Fraser and Kamilla Karthigesu, who built upon their secret alliance. David, who fell into a Tribe Swap with all female players, one of whom was his nemesis, Charity Nelms, was just eager to find like-minded, well, like-built players at the merge. And here we are. David, who was on the swapped tribe with Eva, has an entry point with Joe, who has Shauhin. And now they’re all one happy, physically strong family.

As soon as they had a moment to scurry away and discuss their plan, alarm bells went off. Red flags started waving. Part of their mission was not because they perceived smart and social individuals as specific threats; they were simply threatened by the idea of someone like them not being victorious. Their unity around eliminating mentally-inclined players is driven by the fact that history has not been kind to their archetype. If you look at the winners since Survivor 41, none have been what we used to consider a physical beast. Erika Casupanan: social game. Maryanne Oketch: strategic game. Mike Gabler: social game, with asteriks. Yam Yam Arocho: social and strategic game. Dee Valladares: social and physical game. Kenzie Petty: strategic game. Rachel LaMont: social, strategic, and physical game. A victory by Joe Hunter or David Kinne, the main protagonists of this scenario, would break the mold. Not that they can’t, it’s just the journey to do so in their perceived plan is potentially dangerous.

Do Joe and David Have a Path to Victory?

Uniting all the strong players has its pitfalls. And here’s why. If you’re all physical threats, who can win safety in Individual Immunity, how are you going to beat your physically strong ally to get to the end? If you can win, so can they. And when they win, it means you’re suddenly vulnerable with a massive target on your back. Being a physical unit, it gives the others, as they perceive them, a reason to come together to target your band of physical threats. At this time, while they may have some numbers to pull in, they are not a numerical majority. As proven in the New Era of Survivor, numbers matter more than relationships. To get to the end, you have to cut someone’s throat, and strategic threats know that better than anyone.

Additionally, let’s say your strong unit of allies gets to the end together – if you’re sitting next to players who have a resume similar to yours, how will you pitch to the jury that you’re the castaway that deserves the title of Sole Survivor? It comes down to Immunity Challenge wins, and in this scenario, the person sitting to your left or right may one up you in that department. I’m not saying that David and Joe aren’t smart, but their logic for building upon this plan has some incredible holes.

With the first Tribal Council dictating the direction of the merge, the newfound bromance relied on the hivemind rather than implementing their plan. So far, the physically strong allies have been able to find a uniting enemy in Charity Nelms as the fake merge boot to satisfy the larger group of 12. Now, with everyone officially receiving their buffs as a part of the merge, the test will be to see if their theory works in context. How long does this “tight” group last before it splinters? David and Joe would probably love to flank Eva Erickson at the Final Tribal Council, all pitching to the jury as to why they should win. The problem there is that they won’t win. After Survivor gave us one of the most emotional moments in the 25 years it’s been on TV, no one will beat Eva at Final Tribal. Let’s see if they’d actually turn on her.