Who will win 2024 Oscars? Our predictions, plus a full nominations list

The 2024 Academy Awards are set to air this Sunday, March 10, and at an hour earlier than usual: 7 p.m. EST/4 p.m. PST. And while Oppenheimer looks set to sweep, there is plenty of room for surprises.

This year’s Oscar nominations honor highly regarded films from around the world, performances that premiered in theaters and on streaming, and a few of the biggest movies of the year — including the Barbenheimer double feature. It’s been a slow crawl back from the hazy pandemic era, where movies that kinda sorta came out in time won Best Picture, but here we are, with a set of nominations that stands to be both predictable and electrifying.

How predictable? Here is the full list of 2024 Oscar nominations and who or what we think could win. Or maybe even more fun: who or what could surprise with an upset.

Best Picture nominations and predictions

Image: Universal Pictures

American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest

What will win? Hovering at “If anything beats Oppenheimer, I will eat a shoe” levels of confidence that Oppenheimer will win.

Who could upset? The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall made bigger splashes than expected — could the expanded, more international voting base drive them to win? Neither feel as zeitgeisty as Parasite, but you never know.

Best Director

Justine Triet — Anatomy of a Fall
Martin Scorsese — Killers of the Flower Moon
Christopher Nolan — Oppenheimer
Yorgos Lanthimos — Poor Things
Jonathan Glazer — The Zone of Interest

Who will win? Nolan, as a makeup for not giving him 100 Oscars for Tenet (Oppenheimer is pretty good too).

Who could upset? There is a lot of love for Glazer and his deeply unsettling vision for The Zone of Interest. If voters wanted to break up the love, they could hand Oppenheimer a Best Picture win and stiff Nolan in favor of the other British filmmaker.

Best Actor

Jeffrey Wright — American Fiction
Paul Giamatti — The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper — Maestro
Cillian Murphy — Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo — Rustin

Who will win? This one feels tight, with Murphy and Giamatti picking up a ton of praise from different voting bodies over the season and Wright being a dark-horse favorite. But the impact of Oppenheimer across other categories — not to mention other awards shows like the BAFTAs and the SAG Awards — gives Murphy the lead. No, it’s not fair that he got to emote that hard in IMAX.

Who could upset? If it’s not Murphy, it’s Giamatti. If it’s not Giamatti, it’s Murphy.

Best Actress

Image: Paramount Pictures/Everett Collection

Sandra Hüller — Anatomy of a Fall
Lily Gladstone — Killers of the Flower Moon
Annette Bening — Nyad
Carey Mulligan — Maestro
Emma Stone — Poor Things

Who will win? A close call between two Stones, but even with the season equally divided between them, I am leaning toward Lily Gladstone, who enters the arena with the aura of breakout energy. Gladstone won at the SAG Awards, but keep in mind that all Academy members (not just the actor voting body) will weigh in on the actor categories.

Who could upset? Everyone thinks it’s a race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone but I’d watch out for the global love for Hüller.

Best Supporting Actor

Sterling K. Brown — American Fiction
Ryan Gosling — Barbie
Robert De Niro — Killers of the Flower Moon
Mark Ruffalo — Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Ryan Gosling is happy to be there, but this is def going to Robert Downey Jr. for reminding us all he’s A Pretty Good Actor, Actually.

Who could upset? If the cultural phenomenon of Barbie feels underrepresented in this year’s ceremony, Gosling could come through with an upset.

Best Supporting Actress

America Ferrera — Barbie
Danielle Brooks — The Color Purple
Da’Vine Joy Randolph — The Holdovers
Jodie Foster — Nyad
Emily Blunt — Oppenheimer

Who will win? Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been sweeping this category at critics groups and bigger award season stops, like the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards. Invest now. Buy, buy, buy!

Who could upset? Nyad scored nominations for both its main actors, suggesting there’s still some love for these old fashioned star-driven vehicles. Having seen Foster kill it weekly on True Detective: Night Country could actually give her some momentum here.

Best Original Screenplay

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives

Who will win? The Holdovers has the stamp of approval from other categories, but I would not put it past Anatomy of a Fall to get its big win here. People love the movie!

Who could upset? Past Lives only scored two nominations — for Original Screenplay and frickin’ Best Picture. The movie also won big at the Independent Spirit Awards. Voters may want to couple the top-prize nom with this smaller category.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
The Zone of Internet

Who will win? Oppenheimer might have the fuel, but this might be the place voters think to reward Gerwig’s take on a toy-based movie, especially since they snubbed her in director.

Who could upset? But even the Oppenheimer script has weird hype. Did you know Nolan wrote it in first person?

Best International Feature Film

Image: A24

Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest

Who will win? The Zone of Interest. Having the movie pop up in Best Picture is a sign a large percentage of the voting body saw and was enamored by Jonathan Glazer’s film. If France had put Anatomy of a Fall up for Best International Feature Film consideration instead of The Taste of Things (an equally beloved film that fell short of a nom) then we’d have a tight race, but this is Zone’s to lose.

Who could upset? If somehow Netflix threw enough money behind Society of the Snow, J.A. Bayona’s haunting dramatization of the 1972 plane crash that left Uruguayan rugby footballers to survive in the Andes for months, then maybe the film could pull an All Quiet on the Western Front. But probably not.

Best Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who will win? Many thought Hayao Miyazaki’s final film could crack Best Picture. Didn’t happen — but second prize should be a win for The Boy and the Heron in this category.

Who could upset? Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse was a huge hit and a sequel to previous Best Animated Feature Film winner. If Miyazaki’s complex, often abstract animated drama didn’t resonate with the masses in the voting body, a top-tier popcorn flick could box it out. The category might be one of the closer calls of the night.

Best Cinematography

El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Who will win? A surprise nom for the legendary Ed Lachman for his work on Pablo Larraín’s El Conde might suggest a swell of interest in the under-the-radar film, but probably not, and we should all just assume Oppenheimer is here to dominate.

Who could upset? Rodrigo Prieto is having a killer year — he shot both Killers of the Flower Moon and Barbie. If Martin Scorsese’s and Greta Gerwig’s movies are both going to come short in a year dominated by Oppenheimer, voters may throw Prieto a bone.

Best Production Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Who will win? This one is a race between Barbie, a mega-popular hit, and Poor Things, an award-season darling (and a modest hit in its own right). Poor Things has a leg up here, having won at the Art Directors Guild Awards, but with a larger voting base at the wheel, I’m rolling the dice on Barbie, which won’t be honored many other times.

Who could upset? Poor Things. Easily!

Best Costume Design

Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Who will win? This feels like another toss-up between Poor Things and Barbie, but the Academy does loves a period piece, so going with the extravagance of Poor Things this time around.

Who could upset? Oppenheimer has been making a push for visibility in this category in For Your Consideration-fueled trade magazines. Hard to imagine the suits popping harder than Barbie’s pink looks and Poor Things’ fairy-tale gowns, but do not underestimate the power of well-fitted pants.

Best Hairstyling and Makeup

Photo: Jason McDonald/Netflix

Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow

Who will win? Nosegate be damned, the amount of work from the Maestro makeup and hair team that went into transforming Bradley Cooper into Leonard Bernstein is going to clinch this one for his mixed-reviewed Best Picture nominee.

Who could upset? Society of the Snow.

Best Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Who will win? Oppenheimer. Three hours? Two timelines? Cosmological dream sequences intercut between snappy dialogue sequences? Best Editing is often seen as the bellwether for Best Picture, so expect Tenet editor Jennifer Lame to pick this up.

Who could upset? Killers of the Flower Moon or Anatomy of a Fall are two other films with complex narratives to weave together, but neither seems strong enough to displace the frontrunner in a one-off craft category.

Best Sound

The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest

Who will win? Oppenheimer surround-sound approach to intimate conversation positions it well here — also, it’s winning almost everything else. But…

Who could upset? There is a strong argument that The Zone of Interest is as much a soundscape with visuals as a traditional moving picture. If enough people saw Glazer’s film in a theater, where the horrifying mix really pops, there’s reason to think the film could get the glory it deserves on Oscar day. Gamblers, take note.

Best Visual Effects

Image: 20th Century Studios

The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon

Who will win? The Creator made waves earlier this year for bringing a $200 million blockbuster sheen on a reported budget of $80 million. The ingenuity is a testament to Gareth Edwards’ shoot-and-figure-it-out-in-post methodology, but even more so to the artists who filled in his blanks. At a time when VFX houses are strained by mega-budgeted movie producers who want a ton of do-overs, there’s a bigger narrative at play that should help The Creator.

Who could upset? Godzilla Minus One marks the first time a Godzilla film broke into the Oscars. Everyone loves this kaiju melodrama, and the film being nominated should be an indication of its strength in the category. Without Oppenheimer to suck up the air, this is a tight race.

Best Original Song

“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For” from Barbie

Who will win? Barbie needs to win something, and Ryan Gosling is showing up to sing “I’m Just Ken,” so let’s go with that.

Who could upset? The only movie that could defeat Barbie is Barbie. People still love Oscar-winner Billie Eilish and “What Was I Made For” has a very real chance to upset. My mom told me the song makes her cry when she hears it on the radio, which makes me want to reverse these predictions. Gonna be a close one.

Best Original Score

American Fiction
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Who will win? Ludwig Göransson, so hot right now. Nolan movies, The Mandalorian, the Black Panther movies… cool guy. Oppenheimer has this unexpectedly muted category in the bag.

Who could upset? Dial of Destiny marks John Williams’ 54th Oscar nomination. He’s won five times before — could the Academy pivot from honoring newer blood like Göransson in favor of paying tribute to what is likely a 92-year-old legend’s final film?

Best Documentary Feature Film

Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Who will win? The doc category was full of surprises, but the timely Ukraine war doc 20 Days in Mariupol should come out on top.

Who could upset? To Kill a Tiger is the little movie that could in this category, offering up a story of familial resilience in the face of tragedy. Dev Patel and Mindy Kaling came on board to executive produce, which may have given it a bump of visibility around the Oscar voting deadline.

Best Documentary Short Film

The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nai Nai & Wai Po

Who will win? The short categories are always the toughest to predict, even after you’ve seen them, but let’s go with Nai Nai & Wai Po for Doc Short. Director Sean Wang is on the rise — his debut feature Didi premiered at Sundance just as his short was nominated for the Oscar — and with visibility on Disney Plus, the lighthearted doc about a dancing grandma feels higher profile in a good way.

Who could upset? Political films always play well with voters, and The ABCs of Book Banning feels like the timely choice.

Best Live-Action Short Film

The After
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White, and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Who will win? Unfair to short filmmakers that Wes Anderson is competing in this category, but he really brought the goods with The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar!

Who could upset? Netflix has given a strong push to another one of its films, The After, starring David Oyelowo. If sweetness goes down easier than Anderson’s unique-but-not-for-everyone tone, we could very well see an upset.

Best Animated Short Film

Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Who will win? Set in an alternate WWI, War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko comes from Lenono Music, ElectroLeague, WetaFX, and Epic Games and involves chess, carrier pigeons, and a reminder that war is bad. I asked Polygon writer Joshua Rivera to tell me how it was and he called it “saccharine bullshit elevated from ignorant to offensive by release timing.” This is definitely going to win the Oscar.

Who could upset? All the people I know who love movies and have seen the animated shorts seem to agree that Ninety-Five Senses, from co-directors Jerusha Hess (Austenland) and Jared Hess (Nacho Libre), pushes the animated form in exciting ways and should take home the Oscar. Which means it’ll probably lose and Jared Hess can settle for directing the Minecraft movie. But, hey, maybe there’ll be a twist!