The last week of November is setting up to be a pivotal week in Ukraine’s futile effort to fend off the Russian military. Russia is clobbering Kiev and other parts of western Ukraine with drone hordes that are wreaking havoc on military depots and electric power nodes. In Kiev, the rift between President Zelensky and General Zaluzhny is widening, with rumors swirling that Zelensky will order a full mobilization of Ukraine that will draft 17 to 70 year old civilians, including women.
To make matters worse General Winter has arrived in full force, lashing Ukraine (and Russia) with winds of more than 90 mph and mountains of snow.
There is a snowstorm in Ukraine , the pipes of a boiler house and a power line support in the Odessa region are broken, the roads are covered with snow, and Kiev is covered with snow by night. 400 settlements in Ukraine are without electricity.
In the evening, half a million people were left without electricity in Crimea ; repair crews began eliminating the consequences. On Tarkhankut , and on the west coast in general, there were floods, storms, coastal roads were flooded, hundreds of people were promptly evacuated, in Yevpatoria the Ministry of Emergency Situations rescued people from the roofs of houses in difficult weather conditions. A day off has been declared on the peninsula and in the Kherson region ; civilians are asked to stay at home. In the Zaporozhye region, the center of Berdyansk was flooded.
Despite the inclement weather, Russian soldiers are advancing steadily in Avdeevka and forcing the retreat and surrender of hundreds of Ukrainian troops from an area they have held since 2014. There is a graphic, disturbing video on Odysee (I can’t figure out how to embed it here) that shows elements of the AFU 47th Brigade bugging out of their trenches while being shelled and shot by Russian forces.
Ukraine’s reported plan to draft as many as 20,000 prospective candidates for cannon fodder is being condemned by members of Zelensky’s party, who believe this is a meaningless gesture that will not advance Ukraine’s military fortunes. Mariana Bezuglaya, the deputy head of the Ukrainian parliament’s security, defense and intelligence committee, stated:
The commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been unable to provide a [strategic] plan for 2024,” Bezuglaya wrote in a post on her Facebook page, referring to Ukraine’s top military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny. The general has absolutely no concept of further conflict, she claimed, adding that he has no plan for any type of warfare, “either large or small… asymmetrical or symmetrical.”
Zelensky’s efforts to hide the staggering losses of Ukrainian troops took a major hit when Ukrainian TV Channel 1+1 reported that the AFU’s casualties so far were 1,126,652 KIAs and MIAs. Andrei Martyanov noted that Zelensky’s office moved quickly to force Channel 1+1 to retract the story, but the damage was done. The horse left the barn. Closing the barn door does not put the horse back in its stall.
A draft will not solve Ukraine’s manpower deficit. Let’s assume the Zelensky crew decide to go ahead with this plan; where are these new “recruits” going to be trained? Rudimentary basic training to teach these newbies how to march, how to shoot and how to take care of personal sanitary needs in the field should take a minimum of three months. Ukraine does not have secure facilities/bases in country where it can start a training cycle for 20,000 every month. Russia has those coordinates and can blast them with missiles.
Even if basic training is completed, the new soldiers are not qualified to operate the armored vehicles, mortars, artillery and tanks they would need on the frontlines. And there is one big assumption here — the United States and NATO will continue to flood Ukraine with a billion dollars worth of gear. That ain’t going to happen. Public support in the United States and Europe to continue pouring good money after bad in Ukraine is flagging and the trend line points to growing opposition.
If the winter weather now battering Ukraine continues through December and January, the situation for Ukrainian troops hunkered down in trenches and bunkers will become desperate because the snow and cold will make it very difficult to keep them properly supplied with food and ammunition. There also is the question of whether Western supplied gear can function or be maintained with the icy fingers of General Winter squeezing the Ukrainian throat. It is looking like a very dark winter for Ukraine.
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