Taylor Swift, SZA and Olivia Rodrigo may very well be headed for nods in every of the highest three classes.
Taylor Swift is seen backstage through the 2023 MTV Video Music Awards at Prudential Heart on September 12, 2023 in Newark, New Jersey.
Kevin Mazur/Getty Pictures
The Grammy eligibility interval ended on Friday Sept. 15, two weeks sooner than standard. Meaning if a report isn’t out by now it could possibly’t be thought of for the 66th Annual Grammy Awards, which can be offered on Feb. 4, 2024 at Crypto.com Area in Los Angeles.
The following public-facing step would be the announcement of the nominations on Nov. 10. We don’t know for certain who’s going to be nominated, however we have now a fairly good concept of some artists who’re prone to be nominated within the so-called Massive 4 classes (album, report and track of the 12 months plus greatest new artist) – and what these nominations would imply by way of Grammy historical past.
Just a few reminders first: It will likely be a little bit more durable to crack the Massive 4 classes than it was the final two years: The Recording Academy is chopping the variety of nominees in every of these classes from a bloated 10 to eight, which was the magic quantity from 2020-22. (Earlier than that, it was usually 5.)
This 12 months’s eligibility interval runs from Oct. 1, 2022 by way of Sept. 15. First-round voting extends from Oct. 11 – Oct. 20. Remaining-round voting extends from Dec. 14 to Jan. 4, 2024.
In a welcome change, the Academy reinstated a baseline of involvement wanted to obtain an album of the 12 months nod. Credited and featured artists, songwriters, producers, engineers, mixers and mastering engineers should have labored on no less than 20% of an album’s enjoying time to obtain a nod. That is up from no baseline the final two years, when the Academy handed out nominations on this class like they have been Halloween sweet.
Listed here are 17 artists (and a soundtrack) who’ve an opportunity to make historical past when the nominations are introduced. We additionally point out how seemingly it’s that this may occur.
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Taylor Swift
Potential Feat: If “Anti-Hero” (which Swift co-wrote with Jack Antonoff) is nominated for track of the 12 months, she would change into the primary songwriter in Grammy historical past to amass seven nods in that class. She is presently tied with Paul McCartney and Lionel Richie for many nods within the class – six every.
Chance: Close to sure
Potential Feat: If “Anti-Hero” is nominated for report of the 12 months, Swift can be the primary particular person whose first 5 nominations on this class have been for solo recordings (no collabs or group/duo recordings allowed) since Frank Sinatra within the ’50s and ’60s. Swift’s earlier nods have been for “You Belong with Me,” “We Are By no means Ever Getting Again Collectively,” “Shake It Off” and “Clean House.”
Chance: Close to sure
Potential Feat: If Midnights is nominated for album of the 12 months, Swift would tie Barbra Streisand for probably the most nods on this class (six) by a feminine artist in Grammy historical past. Streisand’s album of the 12 months nominations spanned 24 years (1963-86). True to her identify, Swift may have achieved the feat extra swiftly. Her album of the 12 months nods would span simply 15 years (2009-23).
Chance: Close to sure
P.S.: Swift may make even larger historical past when the Grammys are offered in February, turning into the primary particular person to win album of the 12 months 4 instances. She’s presently tied with Grammy greats Sinatra, Stevie Marvel and Paul Simon with three wins every. However let’s not get forward of ourselves.
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Luke Combs
Potential Feat: If “Quick Automotive” is nominated for report of the 12 months, Tracy Chapman’s track would change into solely the second in Grammy historical past to be the idea of two singles that acquired report of the 12 months nods. The primary was “Mack the Knife.” Bobby Darin’s basic recording, which topped the Billboard Sizzling 100 for 9 weeks, was the 1959 winner; Ella Fitzgerald’s cowl model was a 1960 nominee. Chapman’s authentic model of “Quick Automotive” was nominated in 1988.
Chance: Close to sure. The one query is whether or not the Grammys will be capable to safe a joint Combs/Chapman efficiency. (We predict they are going to do no matter it takes, even when meaning dispatching Recording Academy CEO Harvey Mason jr. to personally drive Chapman to rehearsals.)
P.S.: Chapman received’t be eligible for track of the 12 months as a result of the track is already well-known. In actual fact, it was nominated in that class 35 years in the past. Combs, a greatest new artist nominee 5 years in the past, additionally has a reasonably good shot at an album of the 12 months nod for Gettin’ Outdated.
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SZA
Potential Feat: SZA may obtain nominations for album, report and track of the 12 months for the second time in three years. Two years in the past, she was nominated for report and track of the 12 months for “Kiss Me Extra” (her hit collab with Doja Cat) and album of the 12 months as a featured artist on Doja’s Planet Her.
Chance: Very excessive. “Kill Invoice” can be SZA’s third report of the 12 months nominee – her first on her personal. She was beforehand nominated for collabs with Kendrick Lamar (“All of the Stars”) and Doja Cat (“Kiss Me Extra”). It will even be her third track of the 12 months nominee, following those self same songs.
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Miley Cyrus
Potential Feat: If “Flowers” is nominated for report of the 12 months, Cyrus and her dad, Billy Ray Cyrus, would change into simply the third father or mother and youngster to every obtain report of the 12 months nods, following the Sinatras (Frank and Nancy) and the Coles (Nat King and Natalie).
Billy Ray Cyrus has acquired two report of the 12 months nods – for “Achy Breaky Coronary heart” and “Outdated City Highway,” his collab with Lil Nas X. Frank Sinatra amassed seven report of the 12 months nods; Nancy had one, for “Somethin’ Silly,” a 1967 collab along with her father. Nat King Cole had one, for “Ramblin’ Rose” (1962); Natalie additionally had one for “Unforgettable” (1991). Nat wasn’t nominated for that silky, studio-assembled collab as a result of his half had been recorded a few years earlier.
Chance: Very excessive. Miley Cyrus has by no means been nominated in a Basic Area class, but when she isn’t for this nice report, with a storyline that echoes “I Will Survive” (a 1979 report and track the 12 months nominee), one thing’s improper – and never with Miley. “Flowers” can be very prone to obtain a track of the 12 months nod.
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Olivia Rodrigo
Potential Feat: If Bitter is nominated for album of the 12 months, and “Vampire” is nominated for report and track of the 12 months, Rodrigo would change into the primary artist to brush nominations in all three classes with each of her first two studio albums since Billie Eilish.
Chance: Very excessive. The album, which enters the Billboard 200 at No. 1 this week, has acquired sturdy evaluations and has already spawned two high 10 hits on the Sizzling 100.
P.S.: This might even be the second time Rodrigo has been nominated alongside certainly one of her childhood idols, Taylor Swift, for album of the 12 months. Bitter competed with Swift’s Evermore two years in the past.
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Doja Cat
Potential Feat: If “Paint the City Purple” is nominated for report of the 12 months, Doja will change into the primary artist since Frank Sinatra to obtain 4 consecutive nominations in that class. Doja was nominated for “Say So” (2020), “Kiss Me Extra” (collab with SZA, 2021) and “Lady” (2022). Sinatra was nominated within the first 4 years of the Grammys (1958-61) for “Witchcraft,” “Excessive Hopes,” “Good ‘N Simple” and “The Second Time Round.”
Chance: Pretty good. Doja’s observe report on this class speaks for itself, however some voters might imagine the report leans too closely on the pattern of Dionne Warwick’s 1964 basic “Stroll on By.” Sadly, Warwick can’t be nominated as a featured artist as a result of she recorded her half six many years in the past. Her authentic recording was nominated for greatest rhythm & blues recording (1964) – however not report of the 12 months. And Bacharach wasn’t nominated in any respect that 12 months, both for composing the track or for his excellent association. (Too late to demand a recount?)
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Jelly Roll
Potential Feat: The rapper turned nation artist, who turns 39 in December, can be the oldest particular person nominated for greatest new artist since Andrea Bocelli, who was 40 when he was nominated 25 years in the past.
Chance: Excellent, if the Recording Academy deems him eligible. The foundations on this class are sophisticated and ever-changing. Jelly Roll doesn’t run afoul of the cardinal rule (he’s by no means been nominated), and he additionally appears to fulfill this criterion: “This class acknowledges an artist whose eligibility-year launch(s) achieved a breakthrough into the general public consciousness and notably impacted the musical panorama.” However this isn’t Jelly Roll’s first rodeo: He has been placing out data (with out a lot discover) since 2011.
The CMA Awards, which is extremely revered within the awards neighborhood, deemed Jelly (Mr. Roll?) eligible for his or her new artist of the 12 months award. That makes it a lot simpler for the Grammys to come back to the identical willpower, with out risking being seen as out-of-touch or ill-informed. On the CMAs, Jelly Roll is competing with Zach Bryan (who was nominated for a Grammy in a efficiency class final 12 months and thus shouldn’t be eligible right here), Parker McCollum, Megan Moroney and Hailey Whitters.
Jelly Roll’s “Want a Favor” can be a high candidate for report and track of the 12 months nods.
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Ice Spice
Potential Feat: Ice Spice, who received greatest new artist on the MTV Video Music Awards on Sept. 12, may change into the fourth VMA winner in that class previously 5 years to obtain a Grammy nod in the identical class. She would comply with Billie Eilish, Doja Cat and Olivia Rodrigo. (The 2022 VMA winner, Dove Cameron, was snubbed by the Grammys.)
Chance: Very excessive. Ice Spice has landed three high 5 hits on the Sizzling 100 in 2023, because of collabs with Pink Pantheress (“Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2”) and previous greatest new artist nominees Taylor Swift (“Karma”) and Nicki Minaj (“Princess Diana”).
Potential Feat: “Boy’s a Liar, Pt. 2” is vying to change into the third all-female collab previously 4 years to land a report of the 12 months nod. “Savage” by Megan Thee Stallion that includes Beyoncé was nominated three years in the past. “Kiss Me Extra” by Doja Cat that includes SZA was a contender two years in the past. A number of different all-female collabs are vying for a nod this 12 months, together with “TQG” by Karol G that includes Shakira, “Barbie World” by Nicki Minaj & Ice Spice and “Breakfast in Birmingham” by Tanya Tucker that includes Brandi Carlile.
Chance: Honest. It has a shot, however there so many eligible data (619 final 12 months) and so few nominations slots (simply eight this 12 months, down from 10 the final two years).
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Rema & Selena Gomez
Potential feat: “Calm Down” may change into the primary Afrobeats smash to obtain a report of the 12 months nomination – if the Academy deems it eligible. The remix with Gomez was launched on Aug. 25, 2022, greater than a month earlier than the top of the earlier eligibility 12 months. Rema’s authentic solo model of the track was entered, however not nominated, for greatest world music efficiency final 12 months. (The Grammys didn’t have a devoted class for Afrobeats final 12 months, however is including one this 12 months, referred to as greatest African music efficiency.)
Chance: If it’s deemed eligible, it could be nominated. This might be the third 12 months in a row that Gomez has acquired a Grammy nod. Two years in the past, she was nominated for greatest Latin pop album for Revelación. Final 12 months she was nominated for album of the 12 months as a featured artist on Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres. The multi-tasker additionally has successful TV present, Solely Murders within the Constructing, for which she has acquired back-to-back Primetime Emmy nods as an government producer.
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Rihanna
Potential Feat: The famous person may lastly land her first track of the 12 months nod for “Raise Me Up,” which she-wrote with composer Ludwig Göransson, Tems and movie director Ryan Coogler. A pregnant Rihanna carried out the soulful and chic ballad from Black Panther: Wakanda Perpetually on the Oscar telecast in March, the place it was nominated for greatest authentic track.
This might even be Rihanna’s fourth report of the 12 months nomination – and her first on her personal. She was beforehand nominated for collabs with Jay-Z (“Umbrella”), Eminem (“Love the Manner You Lie”) and Drake (“Work”).
Chance: Honest. “Raise Me Up” is an eminently worthy contender in each classes. Its largest disadvantage is that it’s so previous: It was launched on Oct. 28, 2022, within the first month of the eligibility 12 months. It debuted and peaked at No. 2 on the Sizzling 100 in November.
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Billie Eilish
Potential Feat: Eilish may obtain her fourth report of the 12 months nod in 5 years for the hypnotic ballad “What Was I Made For?.” She received for “Unhealthy Man” (2019) and “The whole lot I Wished” (2020) and was nominated for “Happier Than Ever” (2021) however missed out final 12 months when “TV” wasn’t nominated. Eilish can be the primary artist in Grammy historical past to obtain 4 report of the 12 months nods earlier than turning 22. (She’ll attain that age on Dec. 18, 5 weeks after the nominations are introduced.)
Chance: Honest. Eilish is definitively a contender, however a nomination is much from sure. Some voters could choose to attend for her third studio album slightly than reward her for this providing from Barbie: The Album.
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Morgan Wallen
Potential Feat: One Factor at a Time can be the primary nation album to be nominated for album of the 12 months since Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour 5 years in the past (which received); the primary by a male artist since Chris Stapleton’s Traveller eight years in the past.
Chance: Pretty good. The album topped the Billboard 200 for 15 weeks—longer than some other album since Adele’s 2011 blockbuster 21 (which, as you certainly know for those who’re studying this, received album of the 12 months.) And One Factor is up for album of the 12 months on the CMA Awards, together with three different albums which are eligible right here — Lainey Wilson’s Bell Backside Nation, Luke Combs’ Gettin’ Outdated and Kelsea Ballerini’s Rolling Up the Welcome Mat – and one which isn’t, as a result of it was entered right here final 12 months, in Ashley McBryde’s Ashley McBryde Presents: Lindeville. Nevertheless it stays to be seen if more and more various Grammy voters are as able to forgive and overlook Wallen’s 2021 N-word slur as CMA voters have been. We’ll discover out when the Grammy nominations are introduced.
Potential Feat: “Final Night time” may very well be nominated for report of the 12 months. The smash logged 16 weeks at No. 1 on the Sizzling 100, longer than some other strictly solo recording in historical past. “Final Night time” was the twelfth single to high the Sizzling 100 for 14 or extra weeks. Of the primary 11 to do that, all however two acquired report of the 12 months nods. The 2 that didn’t have been Los Del Rio’s “Macarena (Bayside Boys Remix),” which was in all probability seen as a fluke novelty hit, and Elton John’s “Candle within the Wind 1997”/“One thing In regards to the Manner You Look Tonight,” which was in all probability docked for being a re-do of an already-famous track.
Chance: Not nice. “Final Night time” was handed over for nods for each single of the 12 months and track of the 12 months on the CMA Awards.
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Lil Durk & J. Cole
Potential Feat: “All My Life” can be the primary collaboration by two rappers to obtain a report of the 12 months nod since Da Child that includes Roddy Ricch’s “Rockstar” three years in the past.
Chance: Excessive. The track was a smash (No. 2 on the Sizzling 100). And its melodic refrain provides it broad demographic enchantment. Who wouldn’t love this report from the primary pay attention?
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Zach Bryan
Potential Feat: Bryan may land his first nomination in a Massive 4 class. He’s a contender for an album of the 12 months nod for Zach Bryan and report and track of the 12 months for “I Bear in mind The whole lot,” a collab with six-time Grammy winner Kacey Musgraves.
Chance: Good. Bryan has acquired just one Grammy nod thus far (greatest nation solo efficiency for “One thing within the Orange”), however his eye-popping success this 12 months – his album and single each entered Billboard’s flagship charts at No. 1 – ought to change that. This might be Musgraves’ first nod for report or track, however she’s an album of the 12 months winner and a greatest new artist nominee.
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Karol G
Potential Feat: Mañana Será Bonito may change into the primary all-Spanish language album by a lady to obtain an album of the 12 months nod. Final 12 months, Unhealthy Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti turned the primary all-Spanish language album to be nominated within the class. Mañana Será Bonito (Spanish for Tomorrow Will Be Fairly) entered the Billboard 200 at No. 1 in February, turning into the primary turned the primary all-Spanish language album by a lady to achieve No. 1.
Chance: Honest. It has an opportunity, but it surely’s a fiercely aggressive class. Good signal: It was nominated for album of the 12 months on the Latin Grammys. Bunny’s album was nominated in that class final 12 months, turning into the primary album to be nominated for album of the 12 months at each the Grammys and the Latin Grammys.
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Peso Pluma
Potential Feat: The Mexican singer, songwriter and rapper is vying to change into the third Latin artist to be nominated for greatest new artist previously 5 years, following Rosalía and Anitta.
Chance: Honest. Génesis, his third studio album, debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 in July. “Ella Baila Sola,” his collab with Eslabon Armado, reached No. 4 on the Sizzling 100 in Might. However Pluma’s stunning failure to be nominated for greatest new artist on the Latin Grammys isn’t an excellent signal. However then, Anitta wasn’t nominated for greatest new artist on the Latin Grammys, both. (It hasn’t appeared to carry her again.)
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‘Barbie: The Album’
Potential Feat: The album may change into the primary album marketed as a soundtrack to obtain an album of the 12 months nod since Black Panther: The Album, Music From and Impressed By 5 years in the past. Mark Ronson (a seven-time Grammy winner), Kevin Weaver and Brandon Davis are credited with producing the album.
Chance: Pretty good. The album reached No. 2 on the Billboard 200 and spawned three high 20 hits on the Sizzling 100. And the movie is the 12 months’s top-grossing hit and possibly its most broadly-liked. However movie soundtracks are hardly ever nominated on this class. The final two earlier than Black Panther have been Ready to Exhale (1996) and Oh Brother, The place Artwork Thou (2001).
Discover one thing there? The movie soundtracks that have acquired album of the 12 months nominations in latest many years have been supervised by somebody who’s well-known within the music neighborhood: Babyface (Exhale), T Bone Burnett (O Brother) and Kendrick Lamar & Sounwave (Black Panther). Ronson, too, matches that description. Will it make it? Place your bets.