Because of commentator Keith Harbaugh for tonight’s inspiration. I’ve had a busy day and am attending to the writing activity late. Right here is his remark that sparks my commentary:
Keith Harbaugh says
5 August 2022 at 22:04(Edit)
TTG, over at turcopolier.com, kindly posted a response to this column:
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I’ve no means to adjudicate between these two POVs. Maybe they’re each correct. I merely put up this right here to, maybe, promote understanding of different variations of what the scenario actually is.
As to my POV, it mainly is equivalent to what John Mearsheimer has persistently been stating:
For these new to this weblog and unfamiliar with TTG, TTG is a retired US Military Particular Forces officer of Lithuanian heritage. He not thinks rationally about struggle. His hatred of all issues Russian cloud his judgment. He asserts that I’m ingesting Moscow’s kool-aid as a result of I level out the plain–Russia is successful and can defeat Ukraine fully and decisively.
TTG insists that the arrival of HIMARS and M777s are sport changers and, anticipate it, the Ukrainians will mount the final word offensive and push the Russians again to Moscow. Usually, I’d not need to waste time to have interaction such nonsense however on this case I feel it’s warranted.
Allow us to begin with my incorrect prediction in early March than Russia would make fast work of the Ukrainians. At the moment I didn’t absolutely respect two essential information–1, Ukraines military had constructed and occupied in depth layered trench/bunker fortifications; 2, Ukraine had a 3 to at least one benefit in numbers of troops over the Russian/Donbass forces.
Russia’s response to those two information has been a methodical destruction of the command facilities for every layer of the ditch community utilizing artillery, missiles and aerial bombardment. It is a sluggish course of designed to restrict casualties on the Russian aspect and maximize casualties on the Ukrainian.
The truth that Ukraine had a 3 to at least one benefit and have been embedded in defensive positions ought to have led to the defeat of the Russians. One of many conventional army doctrines is that a military combating a foe who’s on the protection should have a minimum of a 3 to at least one benefit if they’ve any hope of prevailing within the combat. Properly guess what–Russia has turned that doctrine on its head. We now have a case examine (on-going) of the primary time that an inferior drive (by way of numbers) is steadily defeating an entrenched, fortified enemy with thrice the numbers.
There may be not one space in Ukraine the place the Ukraine military has pushed the Russians out of territory they’ve occupied and held it in opposition to Russian counter assaults. Not one. The Russian feint in the direction of Kiev in early March doesn’t depend. Western propaganda insists this was an amazing Ukrainian victory. However Russia used that operation to repair Ukrainian forces round Kiev in order that the Russian, Donetsk and Luhansk forces may mass for the offensive to retake the Donbas. And that’s precisely what the Particular Army Operation has been doing during the last 5 months.
The one “offense” we’re seeing from Ukraine is the shelling of civilians within the Donbas. This does spotlight one shortcoming of the Russian SMO–the dearth of efficient, complete counter battery hearth. It’s value noting that the areas being focused by Ukraine are within the Western a part of the Donbas occupied by Russia and its allied Republics (i.e., Donetsk and Luhansk). Killing a number of civilians in cities within the Donbas with indiscriminate shelling–whereas horrific for the households who free family members–doesn’t win the struggle for Ukraine. In truth, it reinforces its picture as a lawless violator of human rights. Nonetheless, it’s as much as Russia to place in place the required intelligence platforms required to shortly establish the supply of the fires and destroy them.
Ukrainian artillery and HIMMARS is not going to cease Russia’s allied offensive and drive a retreat. Neither will it drive a stalemate. Russia has defacto air supremacy and has intact tank battalions and a plethora of artillery and missiles that it continues to rain down on Ukrainian forces.
Notice the silence by way of psychological operations from the Ukrainian army. You aren’t seeing movies of Ukrainians speeding to enlist to combat off the Russian invaders. You aren’t seeing movies of Ukrainian commanders of models which have abandoned countering the claims of the lads who say they have been deserted and getting used as cannon fodder. You aren’t seeing movies nor experiences of Ukrainian air craft offering shut air assist for Ukrainian models. You aren’t seeing movies or Ukrainian tank models shellacking Russians and sending them scampering for security. Ask your self, “Why?”
This isn’t Kremlin Kool Assist. These are goal information. An important one–a numerically inferior drive is systematically and methodically retaking territory as soon as occupied by Ukrianian forces and pushing these forces in the direction of the Dnieper River. Cities and communities that Ukraine vowed would by no means fall have fallen and Russia is restoring order in these locations.
Talking of predictions, I need to remind you of the daring evaluation of TTG’s mentor, Pat Lang:
“The Russian army might solely be capable of maintain the combat in Ukraine for an additional 14 days, the Every day Mail is reporting.
The newspaper, attributing the knowledge of U.Ok. protection sources, mentioned that after two weeks the Russian forces might battle to carry the bottom they captured in Ukraine.
Pat Lang’s Remark: There’s something within the air that tells me this estimate is right. The Russian Military is sort of a brick wall rotten on the base. When it begins to fall it can crumble shortly.
That has aged effectively. It highlights the elemental downside with the so-called evaluation from TTG and Lang–they imagine the propaganda spewed by the UK reasonably than utilizing their brains and expertise. A tragic epitaph for these two males.