Predictions For All 23 Categories

Summary

• The 2024 Oscars are predicted to follow the fresh change in genre and diversity seen in the 2023 Oscars, with great movies and performances expected to be rewarded.
• The likes of Barbie, Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Maestro should all be popular with voters and get nominations in multiple categories.
• However, it’s Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon that will likely be battling for most of the big prizes, including Best Picture.

With the end of 2023 quickly approaching, there are plenty of marvelous movies, exciting performances, great directorial efforts, sizzling screenplays, and so much more that are predicted to receive nominations (and maybe even win) at the Oscars 2024. The nominees and winners at the 2023 Oscars largely offered a fresh change to the Academy’s voting history in relation to genre and diversity, especially with the history made with winners in the acting categories like Michelle Yeoh and Ke Huy Quan. The 2024 Oscars are expected to follow a similar path, ready to reward some of the best movies of 2023, with some highly-regarded stories and performances that aren’t apt to be forgotten.

Awards season is gradually heating up, which means the field of movies that will get Oscar nominations is narrowing slightly, but there’s still time of several twists and turns. Predicted nominees like Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Killers of the Flower Moon have already opened wide, but there are several more prestigious films that will fancy their chances. With the Oscars 2024 nominations set to announced in January 2024, let’s run through the current predictions for winners, with nominee predictions also outlined. We’ll keep this updated as awards season continues to bring new frontrunners and contenders.

23 Best Picture

Winner: Oppenheimer

The Oppenheimer vs. Killers of the Flower Moon narrative looks set to define the Oscars 2024, and should also be what defines the Best Picture race. Of course, it’s certainly not impossible for other frontrunners and contenders to emerge; something like Barbie would be a popular choice for an Academy looking to be more relevant and attract audiences to the ceremony, while the likes of Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Maestro should have a lot of admirers across the board.

Still, it is difficult to look beyond Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon right now, both of which have received great acclaim and long been heralded as favorites. With the preferential voting system, too, it’s likely both will be high on a lot of ballots. There’s plenty of time for this to go back-and-forth before the Oscars 2024 come around, but Oppenheimer, which looks set to dominate in the below-the-line categories and win big in the acting ones, has the edge as it stands. That it was a big winner at the Golden Globes 2024, including Best Drama, helps too, though isn’t a guarantee.

Outside the frontrunners, there are several movies jostling for a nomination. Anatomy of a Fall‘s somewhat surprising Best Screenplay win at the Golden Globe is a good sign for its chances. The Zone of Interest has had some awards season love already, while Past Lives has been a big critics’ favorite and American Fiction landed in AFI’s top movies of 2023. There is, however, time for the likes of The Color Purple, May December, or even more surprising choices such as Air or Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse to come into play.

22 Best Director

Winner: Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)

Christopher Nolan has, surprisingly, only been nominated for Best Director once (for Dunkirk). In contrast, Martin Scorsese has nine nominations so far, but only one win (for The Departed). They’re the two frontrunners in this category at the Oscars 2024, so will the Academy look to give Nolan what many would see as an award not only deserving for Oppenheimer, but also his entire body for work? Or will they look to award Scorsese, with Killers of the Flower Moon also worthy, but also realizing that the master should probably have more than one statue? That’s the decision facing voters, and which will decide this race.

There are plenty of other great directors in here: Greta Gerwig does stunning work on Barbie, Yorgos Lanthimos remains a unique voice, and Jonathan Glazer is well-respected but has never been nominated (though could miss out to Alexander Payne for The Holdovers). But again, it’s about Nolan vs. Scorsese, or at least that’s how awards season and the narratives are shaping up. In the past 10 years, five winners have directed movies that also won Best Picture, so it’s an even split on whether it will determine that race. Nolan will likely be seen as due, though, which should be enough, and he has the Golden Globe and a New York Film Critics Circle win to back it up.

21 Best Actress

Winner: Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

When Poor Things won the Golden Lion at Venice Film Festival, it seemed as though Emma Stone was an early lock for the Best Actress prize at the Oscars 2024: already an awards favorite despite just being in her early-30s (with three nominations, one win), she’s the star of Yorgos Lanthimos’ new movie and received the most attention and praise for its win. However, Lily Gladstone coming into this category shakes things up massively, and might be enough to take the Oscar away from Stone.

Gladstone is seen as the best part of Killers of the Flower Moon‘s cast, which is no easy feat in a movie starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. The breakthrough should garner a lot of support, especially from the acting guild, and could be enough to carry her to the win, having already picked up the Golden Globe. Carey Mulligan in Maestro has also proved popular, and Sandra Hüller not only shines in the Palme d’Or winning Anatomy of a Fall, but also has a key supporting role in The Zone of Interest (and has wins with the Los Angeles Film Critics’ Association and the National Society of Film Critics).

Margot Robbie not being nominated for Barbie would feel like a snub for 2023’s biggest movie, but she is most at threat, most likely from Past Lives‘ Greta Lee. Outsiders include The Color Purple‘s Fantasia Barrino, Nyad‘s Anette Bening, and May December‘s Natalie Portman.

20 Best Actor

Winner: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)

Eight of the last 13 Best Actor Oscars have gone to someone playing a real-life figure, and that’s surely set to continue. The question is whether it will be Cillian Murphy, Bradley Cooper, or Leonardo DiCaprio, who make up the three strongest contenders. Murphy is in the movie that looks set to dominate, and beat the other two to win the Best Actor in a Drama at the Golden Globes. DiCaprio, meanwhile, no longer has the overdue narrative and his chances may have dipped slightly, dropping in momentum.

Cooper is popular, having been nominated for four acting Oscars previously (three in this category), and his performance as Leonard Bernstein is the kind of transformation that voters love (and audiences at Maestro‘s Venice Film Festival debut did as well). He may have the narrative of being due gradually building, but it may not be enough to beat Murphy, There’s then a lot of competition for the final slots: Colman Domingo in Rustin and Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers are well-placed, but Jeffrey Wright was highly praised when American Fiction premiered at Toronto Film Festival, and Andrew Scott is an outside bet for All Of Us Strangers.

19 Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

At one point, it had seemed like this was going to be the easiest of the acting categories to call, because the early forecasts suggested that Killers of the Flower Moon‘s Lily Gladstone would be entered into this race (perhaps because it would mean a better chance of winning). That no longer looks set to be the case, however, with Gladstone instead entering into the Best Actress race, which leaves this one wide open for both nominations and a potential winner.

The biggest beneficiary could be Da’Vine Joy Randolph in Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers, a period comedy-drama set in the early 1970s about a teacher (Paul Giamatti) who is responsible for the students who don’t have homes to go to for Christmas. Randolph plays the school cook who has lost her son in the Vietnam War, and she’s the film’s standout performer (which landed her the Golden Globe).

Strong competition may come from The Color Purple, with Danielle Brooks getting a lot of praise, while Oppenheimer is a major contender and Emily Blunt is one of its strongest parts. There’s tough competition for the final spots, but May December‘s positive reception should get Julianne Moore a nod, and Jodie Foster could just beat out Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), and Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest).

18 Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

At the 2009 Oscars, Robert Downey Jr. missed out on winning Best Supporting Actor with the award going to an actor from a Christopher Nolan movie, namely Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight. 15 years on, and Downey Jr’s best shot at an Oscar since then comes in the same category, but this time he’s the one in a Nolan movie. Will Oppenheimer be enough to get him his first win? He’s got the edge precisely because he hasn’t won before, and could be seen as being due, which was also reflected in a Golden Globe victory.

Ryan Gosling picking up a nomination for Barbie will likely be good Kenough, but it is also the movie’s best chance at a big award. Charles Melton has already won for May December, with prizes at the Gotham Independant Film Awards and the New York Film Critics’ Circle, but missed the BAFTA longlist. Robert De Niro gives his most acclaimed performance in years in Killers of the Flower Moon, but momentum for the win has dipped. Meanwhile Mark Ruffalo will probably edge out Willem Dafoe for the Poor Things nod.

17 Best Original Screenplay

Winner: The Holdovers

With Barbie confirmed to be considered as an adapted screenplay by the Academy, then the Best Original Screenplay award becomes more open. That could benefit May December, or perhaps even Air, for a nomination, but what about in terms of the win? The Holdovers may be the strongest contender here, since it has the best chances and representation in the bigger categories. But Past Lives‘ screenplay has a lot of love, while Anatomy of a Fall picked up the Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes.

16 Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner: Killers of the Flower Moon

Recent form suggests that you need to win a Best Screenplay award to win Best Picture (four of the last five have done so, albeit with three coming from the Original side), but could the Oscars 2024 buck that trend? It’s another hard one to call at this point, but there’s reason to believe it might: if voters are being swayed by Oppenheimer for Best Picture, then this is a key chance to reward Martin Scorsese’s movie (and give him a first writing Oscar). Both adapt weighty books into epic movies that nonetheless are entertaining to the masses, which is impressive, though Poor Things is a possible spoiler.

Barbie should pick up a nomination, but winning looks much harder here than it would have done in the Original Screenplay category. American Fiction, The Zone of Interest , and All of Us Strangers are probably going to be left battling for the final spot.

15 Best Animated Feature Film

Winner: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse won this award five years at the 2019 Oscars, and with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse pushing its groundbreaking mix of animation styles and technology even further, then this should be its to lose. Very strong competition comes from the return of Hayao Miyazaki with The Boy and the Heron, his first feature film in a decade, which won the Golden Globe.

Pixar will likely still pick up a nomination for Elemental, but a win this year would be a big shock. Things are worse for Disney, as Wish faces an uphill battle to even just receive a nomination. The final nod is a tough pick, with Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem deserving, but Robot Dreams, Nimona, Wish, and Suzume could all compete after a strong year for animated movies.

14 Best International Feature Film

Winner: The Zone of Interest

Best International Feature at the Oscars 2024 could have been incredibly close to call if France had chosen to submit Anatomy of a Fall, which would’ve put two Best Picture contenders into the race. After that surprising snub, although The Taste of Things is one of the next strongest contenders, alongside buzzy Netflix hit Society of the Snow and the powerful doc 20 Days in Mariupol. However, it’s the heavily acclaimed The Zone of Interest that’s the clear frontrunner. With it in contention for some big nominations, then the movie – which is from the UK but in German – should win here.

13 Best Documentary Feature

Winner: American Symphony

American Symphony, which covers a year in the life of musician Jon Batiste, is the frontrunner in the Best Documentary Feature category after scoring big at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards, where it picked up a leading six nominations, including Best Feature and Best Director. 20 Days in Mariupol and Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie also garnered a lot of attention, and the former also has a shot at Best International Feature to boost its credentials.

12 Best Documentary Short Subject

Winner: Deciding Vote

Deciding Vote, about assemblyman George Michaels voting on New York’s abortion bill some 50 years ago, has been getting a lot of early praise on the festival circuit, and is the kind of short that should play well here to get the win: incredibly timely and impactful in its subject, and being seen widely enough for recognition.

11 Best Animated Short Film

Winner: Once Upon A Studio

Disney’s Once Upon a Studio is a celebration of 100 years of history, which could be enough nostalgia to sway voters its way, as could its use of 2D animation, not to mention the fact that it’s probably the one most will have seen. Other contenders include Pete, which comes from Pixar artist Bret Parker, and 27, which was a hit at Annecy.

10 Best Live Action Short Film

Winner: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

This is an award that could well be decided at the nomination stage. If Wes Anderson’s Roald Dahl adaptation The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar gets a nomination, then it’ll surely win. But the Oscars have on occasion been resistant to going for nominating big feature directors – for example Pedro Almodóvar’s The Human Voice, starring Tilda Swinton was snubbed, and he could be snubbed again, too, depending on whether his Strange Way of Life, starring Pedro Pascal and Ethan Hawke, gets a nod. There are other known names in contention, including a short from Alden Ehrenreich, The After starring David Oyelowo, and The Shepherd starring John Travolta.

9 Best Original Song

Winner: “What Was I Made For?” – Barbie

Best Original Song is a category with a lot of competition at the Oscars 2024, so much so just narrowing it down to five nominees is tough, and just Barbie‘s songs could fill multiple slots. For all the viral appeal “I’m Just Ken” has (not to mention “Dance The Night Away,” which is also on the shortlist), “What Was I Made For?” feels like the more thematic and emotional song voters will go for. That would give Billie Eilish and brother Finneas another Oscar after their win for No Time To Die.

Diane Warren has the most nominations without a win (14), and will probably extend that (with what would be a remarkable 7th consecutive nomination). Other competition includes some big names, such as Olivia Rodrigo for The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes, and Lenny Kravitz’s song from Rustin, but the likes of The Color Purple or Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse could still force their way into contention.

8 Best Original Score

Winner: Oppenheimer

Ludwig Göransson won this award for Black Panther, and is a good bet to make it two wins from two nominations at the Oscars 2024: Oppenheimer is a feat of technical achievements, but Göransson’s booming, at times anthemic score is one of the clear standouts that elevates so much of the movie. There’s a lot of great work though for several potential first time nominees here, while Thomas Newman is always in-line for a nomination, with 14 to his name so far, although he’s never won and that seems unlikely to change.

7 Best Sound

Winner: Oppenheimer

The Best Sound Oscar, especially since it was merged from Editing and Mixing into just one category, so often goes to the movie with the biggest sound. Here, that should be Oppenheimer: although the sound mixing of Christopher Nolan’s movies is often a point of contention, it’s not as much of an issue on this movie (and hasn’t stopped him winning before, as The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk all picked up awards). Maestro being a movie about a composer should mean sound is right at the forefront, making it perhaps the next closest competitor. Ferrari, whose race scenes should garner attention (Ford v. Ferrari won Best Sound Editing), is also likely to get a nod.

6 Best Visual Effects

Winner: The Creator

Two movies with budgets under $100 million have a real chance at winning Best Visual Effects, as both The Creator and Godzilla Minus One have incredible work in this category. Both have been highly praised for their VFX, and would be impressive even if their budgets had been much larger. There have already been snubs here, with Oppenheimer and The Little Mermaid notably being left out. It would be a surprise if Disney had no representation, but Society of the Snow and Rebel Moon could push their way in.

5 Best Film Editing

Winner: Oppenheimer

Best Filming Editing isn’t quite the predictor of Best Picture it used to be, but it still looks likely to come down to a battle between the two favorites for the top prize. Both Jennifer Lame, who hasn’t been nominated before, and Thelma Schoonmaker, who has three wins from eight nominations, were tasked with epic, dense movies that run at or over three hours long. That both managed it with such style is why they’re the two favorites, though if the Oscars voters favor something a little breezier, then Barbie or Poor Things could have an outside chance, especially if voters look to take other opportunities to reward them outside the top prizes.

4 Best Costume Design

Winner: Poor Things

Jacqueline Durran (2 wins from 8 nominations) and Jacqueline West (4 nominations) bring a lot of Oscars experience to this category, but it could be the previously un-nominated Holly Waddington who takes the gold. Poor Things‘ costumes are a mix of period and fantasy, both areas that play well in this category, and look incredible. Barbie will surely be the strongest challenger and could garner a lot of votes, both for the sheer amount of costumes worn in the movie, and how instantly iconic some of them have become. The warm responses to The Color Purple and Wonka should secure them nominations, perhaps at the expense of Napoleon, which had a less than stellar reception, and Are You There God? It’s Me Margaret, which is a little less showy.