Disney’s True 2023 Box Office Win Highlights A Blockbuster Problem

Summary

• Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is a rare success in a year of disappointing big-budget releases, highlighting a wider problem in the blockbuster landscape.
• The film’s strong box office returns and critical reception make it a win for the MCU, but they also underscore the excessive trend of ballooning production budgets.
• Out of all the 2023 movies with budgets over $200 million, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is the only one that turned a profit, revealing the need for studios to reevaluate their strategy.

While Disney’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has earned the studio a unique box office victory, the film reflects a wider problem with 2023 blockbuster releases. The success of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 comes at a difficult time for Disney. The studio giant has seen a disappointing Disney 100th anniversary amid a string of big-budget box office disappointments. From the legacy sequel Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny to the live-action remake of The Little Mermaid, a lot of seemingly bankable IP failed to connect with audiences in 2023.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 is a post-Endgame win for the MCU, enjoying strong box office returns, as well as a warm critical reception. However, the film’s lonely victory spells trouble for Disney and the entire blockbuster landscape. A budget trend that has been steadily growing more and more intense in recent years seems to have come to a head in 2023, and a blockbuster marketplace crowded with seemingly bankable IP has taken its toll on the bottom line of many major studios.

Disney’s Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 3 Was The Only $200M+ Movie To Turn A Profit This Year

While Disney has had a rough year at the box office, the studio saw a bright spot with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. With a worldwide gross of $845 million, the superhero movie is not only the fourth highest-grossing movie of the year (via Box Office Mojo), it is currently the only 2023 movie to turn a profit on a production budget of over $200 million, according to an analysis from Indiewire. Disney had the best chance of any studio at winning this particular box office battle, as the studio was behind more than half of the 13 movies that spent $200 million or more in 2023 so far.

It bears mentioning that Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom has yet to release, and Wish and Napoleon are still too new to make any definitive judgments (although projections are not optimistic). Nevertheless, the available figures are fairly damning for Hollywood’s $200 million+ budget strategy. The top three movies this year all cost far less than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, with the $1.4 billion-grossing Barbie costing $145 million, and the second- and third-ranked films, Oppenheimer and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, costing only $100 million each.

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom releases on December 22, 2023

Why Were So Many 2023 Movies So Expensive?

Massive production budgets are nothing new, but the trend of $200 million+ budgets seems to have exploded in recent years. The explanation for this surge in blockbuster movie budgets can’t be tied to a single cause; inflation plays an obvious part, but the biggest factor is likely studios’ pivot toward tentpole blockbusters. As reliable blockbuster IPs have proven themselves capable of delivering massive profits, studios have begun to put more and more money into their seemingly dependable blockbusters with the expectation of a billion-dollar payout. One problem with this strategy is that it leads to studios indulging a sunk cost fallacy.

When millions are poured into a film that then encounters problems, the studio is more likely to pour even more millions in to salvage the project, hoping that a massive box office payout will balance the books. This phenomenon can be seen in action, with the massive budgets of Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, which ballooned out of control due to COVID-afflicted productions. The fact that only one 2023 film, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, successfully salvaged a profit from this trend of massive blockbuster budgets indicates that studios need to reevaluate their box office strategy.

Source: Box Office Mojo, Indiewire

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  Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3

  Release Date:

  2023-05-05

  Director:

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  Rating:

  PG-13

  Runtime:

  116 Minutes

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  Writers:

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  Budget:

  $250 Million

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