‘Aquaman 2’ $40M Opening, ‘Wonka’ Eyes $31M – Deadline

SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and chart Despite the lack of an Avatar or Star Wars type movie, and no reports of fierce winter weather closing cinemas, this Christmas looks to be slightly better for Hollywood and exhibition with around $147M for the 4-day weekend, +3% from a year ago. It could actually go higher by Monday.

That said we’re way off 2017, -43%, the last time Christmas fell on a Monday, and when Star Wars: The Last Jedi, was on the marquee, with all pics grossing $259.5M per Box Office Mojo. The annual box office by EOD Christmas should hit $8.9 billion, which +22% from the same Jan. 1-Dec. 25 period a year ago.

Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom which gets a B CinemaScore to the first installment’s A-, came in at $13.7M with revised projections of $30M for the 3-day, and around $43M for the 4-day. Industry projections are seeing a -23% drop today against Friday (plus Thursday Previews) for a gross north of $10M.

Warner’s Wonka is also looking strong with a $6.5M Friday, a 20% expected boost in family business today to $7.8M, and a 3-day of $18.8M. It would be no surprise if this movie hits $30M by the end of Christmas, which would be an amazing hold against the pic’s first four days of $43M.

If Warners is going to own the top 3 spots over the 4-day holiday frame, they’re going to have to have their Christmas Day opening title, The Color Purple beat the Friday-Monday take of Illumination/Universal’s Migration ($18M). While Color Purple is expected to have a strong Monday with around $10M-$12M, no one is seeing a first day Christmas gross on par with Uni’s 2012 feature take of Broadway musical Les Miserables which posted $18.1M –the best start ever at the box office for a big screen take of a Broadway show.

When was the last time we saw one studio put three movies out at the same time over Christmas? I don’t even think Disney has ever pulled that off. It’s interesting maneuver for the cash-strapped Warner Bros Discovery, yet commendable. Exhibition sure isn’t shrugging it — they sure don’t see Aquaman 2 as a “lump of coal” on their end. With three features aimed at three different demos, it’s a smart move on behalf of Warner Bros., and also covers up for the lackluster finale of the Zack Snyder conceived DC universe. Rather than spotlight one film, Warners is telling circuits, ‘We gave you three films’. What made distribution strategy possible is that Disney didn’t have a big movie, nor did Paramount.

Sony’s Columbia Pictures Anyone But You could hit $10M over 4-days which would be a great start for this romantic comedy; stars Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell have been working it big time since the movie’s premiere with paired interviews, and appearances. That would be on the high end of expectations. Sony is $9M. The pic made $3.4M. CinemaScore audiences like it better than Aquaman 2 with a B+. The pic also has 4 stars on PostTrak. Female heavy as expected at 67% with 69% of the audience between 18-34 years old with the largest quad being Sweeney’s Euphoria crowd, 18-24 years old at 40%. Diversity demos are 57% Caucasian, 18% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, & 17% Asian/Other. The movie is playing evenly throughout most of the country except the South West. AMC Century City LA is the best theater as of right now with $10K in the till. There’s a big effort here by Sony to bring back the romantic comedy from its streaming prison.

RelishMix spots a good, although not stupendous, vibe out there for the movie with some fans excited for another rom-com exclaiming, “I will see it for Syndey Sweeney.” The White Lotus star commands close to 17M fans across Twitter, Tiktok, X, and Facebook to Powell’s 863K followers. Social media universe reach is close to 99M which is lower than Ticket to Paradise‘s near 156M and the Jennifer Lopez romcom Marry Me‘s 122.8M.

A24’s The Iron Claw is the studio’s top CinemaScore ever with an A-. Prior to that Talk to Me nabbed a B+. PostTrak audiences love it at 91% and a 72% definite recommend. The Zac Efron-Jeremy Allen White wrestling movie made $2.5M yesterday, on its way to a $5.5M 3-day and $7.8M 4-day, which was to be expected. Guys mostly here at 66% with 60% of the audience between 18-34 years old with the largest quad being 25-34 years old at 36%. The mix was 53% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 6% Black, & 10% Asian/other. The movie is quite strong in the South Central followed by the East and West.  The AMC LSQ NY is the top grossing cinema in the nation with over $20K so far.

In regards to the audience responses for Iron Claw and Anyone But You, these are great exits, which means great word of mouth for a long play over the holidays. Any title opening before Christmas outside of some massive FOMO heavy tentpole is going to be slower out of the gate.

Amazon MGM and MRC’s TIFF winner American Fiction jumped 33 theaters in 11 markets with a $212K gross on Friday, +75% from a week ago. 3-day is looking like $448K and 4-day $606K. Theater average on the 4-day will be $15K. The Cord Jefferson directed movie will continue to expand into January. Note I, Tonya and Holdovers had similar expansions when they went respectively to 43 and 64 theaters. American Fiction is making more than I, Tonya did at $433K, and it’s not far from Holdovers‘ $568K. The movie is playing strong in San Francisco, Atlanta, DC, Toronto and Chicago.  

more..chart coming.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Right now, it’s looking like Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom will arrive at $40M over 4-days, which is where tracking had it.

That said, Warners can boast, and CEO David Zaslav can be happy, in having the top two films at the box office along with Wonka‘s second weekend in the No. 2 spot with a projected $31M over the Dec. 22-25 span. Friday/previews for Aquaman 2 is $14M with a 3-day of $30M at 3,706 theaters. Wonka‘s second Friday is $7M (-51%), which translates to a 3-day of $22M at 4,213 theaters. We’re hearing that Color Purple‘s Christmas Day gross could be around $10M-$12M, which would put it in the No. 4 spot behind Illumination and Universal’s Migration which is looking at $18M at 3,761 theaters; a better than expected result than the $10M-$12M we were hearing about.

With grosses like these, it’s crystal clear this is the end of the Zack Snyder-borne era of DC with Aquaman 2. Even so, it’s proper to see where ticket sales are in a week. Holiday moviegoers may just want to check their brains at the door and savor this installment in 3D. The sequel currently counts a 76% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes, but note that the first movie was 72%.

Social media chatter per RelishMix is mixed on Aquaman 2 with a social media universe across TikTok, Instagram, X, Facebook and YouTube of 334.3M. That social media count is -48% below Superhero social media norms per the analytics company. Other 300 social media universe titles include Ant-Man and the Wasp with 341.8M which opened to $758M and Bumblebee at 350.3M which opened to $30M.

Everything is relative: In the millennium, Christmas also fell on a Monday in 2000, 2006, and 2017. If Aquaman 2 hits $40M that’s better than the results of other top 4-day openers during those years, i.e. 2017’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle ($36.1M), 2006’s Night at the Museum ($30.4M) and 2000’s Cast Away ($28.8M), however, it’s tremendously lower than the second weekend of Star Wars: The Last Jedi ($71.5M) which led all titles during the Christmas 4-day of 2017. On one hand, we can say that Aquaman 2 is doing what it’s suppose to do for a weekend where Christmas falls on a Monday. On another hand, it’s no massive draw like Star Wars (we always knew that).

Migration‘s Friday and previews is looking like $6M with a 3-day of $13.2M in third. No RT audience score yet.

Currently fourth is rather close between three titles. Columbia Pictures’ Anyone But You is seeing a $3M Friday, $6.1M 3-day and $8.5M 4-day. No RT audience score yet. The movie cost $25M before P&A, co-financed by SK Global Entertainment and TSG Entertainment

Moksha Movies and Pathyangira Cinemas’ gang war movie Salaar Part 1: Ceasefire is looking at $3.9M today, 3-day of $6.6M and 4-day of $8.4M at 750 sites.

A24’s The Iron Claw, which cost $15M net before P&A, is seeing a Friday of $2.5M, 3-day $5.7M and 4-day of $8.3M.

FRIDAY AM: Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom posted $4.5M last night at 3,400 locations while Illumination/Universal’s Migration did $1.5M in what is expected to be a slow weekend at the 4-day Christmas box office. That’s largely due to the fact that there isn’t a massive want-to-see movie in the marketplace, Aquaman 2 weighted down by awful reviews at 36% on Rotten Tomatoes and an outlook of $40M plus-or-minus over four-days.

Previews started at 3PM for Aquaman 2 while Migration started at 2PM. Comscore says that 43% K-12 schools were on break and 90% colleges out yesterday. Those numbers rise respectively to 66%/93% today before going to 100% next week.

Already, the sequel’s previews are less than that of Disney/Marvel Studios’ dud The Marvels which did $6.6M before a 3-day of $46.1M, the lowest start ever for a Marvel movie. That said, Aquaman 2‘s previews are higher than that of DC’s earlier bomb Shazam: Fury of the Gods ($3.4M Thursday night, $11.7M Friday, and 3-day of $30.1M). By comparison, DC’s The Flash, which was plagued with bad headlines about its star Ezra Miller and a cast that didn’t publicize the film in a big way looks like a massive hit with $9.7M previews, a $24.1M Friday and $55M 3-day.

The one advantage that Aquaman 2 has is that it is the bigger marquee draw over the holiday weekend, however, Warner Bros is in competition with itself as the other golden ticket at the box office, Wonka, made $4.2M at 4,203 yesterday –almost as much as Aquaman 2, for a first week’s haul of $57.5M. The notion is that the Timothee Chalamet movie will ease to $20M+ over the four days.

General audiences in Comscore/Screen Engine PostTrak exits did not like Aquaman 2 with 3 stars last night and a 50% recommend, and that’s the time when the big fans shows up. Ugh. However, parents gave it 5 stars (slightly more moms at 51%) and kids under 12 gave it 4 stars (66% boys), so perhaps they save this movie in the end.

With Christmas on Monday, business for all movies will be significantly better at that point in time and thereafter. With Christmas Eve, a downer day at the B.O., on Sunday, brace yourselves for lower than expected results for everybody. The first Aquaman was slow out of the gate back when it opened, grossing $136.7M in its first seven days back during the holidays 2018 (Christmas Day fell on a Tuesday), and $67.8M over 3-days. However, the James Wan directed sequel isn’t expected to have the same momentum.

Migration‘s $1.5M at 3,050 sites is less than Disney’s Tuesday pre-Thanksgiving previews of Wish which did $2.3M ($31.6M 5-day). Granted, the latter is girl-leaning and the Illumination title is more boys at 60%. Other comps for Migration include DreamWorks Animation’s Trolls Band Together ($1.3M previews, $9.3M Friday and $30M opening weekend) as well as The Bad Guys ($1.15M, $7.9M Friday, and $23.95M opening). Critics aren’t entirely turning their backs on this original animation movie at 69% fresh, nor are audiences with PostTrak scores of 4 1/2 stars for parents and 5 stars for kids under 12. General moviegoers didn’t have the patience for this Benjamin Renner and Guylo Homsy directed animated film about ducks at 3 1/2 stars and 51%. The movie is expected to post around $10M+ this weekend, but as we all know, don’t underestimate family animated movies at this time of year which can leg out big time. Many are wondering whether we’re bound to give this movie a pass in comparison to Wish: Hello, Migration was way cheaper at $72M before production costs versus Wish‘s $175M.

Columbia Pictures’ Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell R-rated romantic comedy Anyone But You did $1.2M at 2,723 locations that began at 2PM Thursday. The movie is expected to do between $7M-$10M over 4-days. Last night’s previews are a tad higher than that of the George Clooney-Julia Roberts romantic comedy, Ticket to Paradise, which filed $1.1M before a $6.4M Friday and $16.1M opening. Critics aren’t that far apart between Ticket which they slammed at 57% and Anyone But You which they stuck their tongues out at 48%. Hopefully prospective moviegoers don’t read reviews and listen to their friends as Thursday’s audience gave the Will Gluck-directed movie 4 stars and a 57% recommend. As expected, women showed up at 68%, but women over 25, who repped 29% of ticket buyers, loved the movie at 92%.

Meanwhile, A24’s The Iron Claw at 2,100 theaters posted $670K from previews that started at 4PM. That movie is expected do in the high single digits over the 4-day holiday. Out of the gate PostTrak audiences graded the Zac Efron-Jeremy Allen White wrestling drama 4 1/2 stars and 76% recommend. Guys over 25 were the biggest draw yesterday at 44%, with women over 25 and men under 25 even at 22% apiece. However, guys under 25 gave the Sean Durkin directed and written movie its best grades at a great 97%.

Elsewhere yesterday among regular ranked movies, after Wonka there was Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes which saw a $944K fifth Thursday (-8% from Wednesday) at 3,291 theaters, a $9.9M fifth weekend and $149.3M running total.

GKIDS Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron saw a second Thursday of $896K (-16%), second week of $9.4M at 2,325 theaters and a running total of $27.4M.

Yash Raj Films’ Dunki opened yesterday to an estimated $871K at 686 locations. The Rajkumar Hirani directed movie follows four friends and their quest to reach foreign shores, charting their arduous yet life-changing journey.

Toho’s Godzilla Minus One booked at 2,622 theaters posted an estimated third Thursday of $741K (-13%) in fifth and a third week of $8.2M and running total of $37.6M.